Ennustusturud on üpris uus nähtus ja kasutusel vaid mõnes üksikus suurettevõttes nagu HP või Google. Neile, kes pole ennustusturgudest varem kuulnud võtab New York Times’is täna ilmunud artikli autor paari lõiguga olulisema kokku:
Unlike surveys, the markets rely on something, I think the technical term is … oh, yeah, greed, to get their results.
Ask me who I think will win a baseball game, an election and an Oscar, and I can try to be objective, but I can’t help being influenced by who I would like to see win. Put $5 on it, however, and suddenly I am willing to use all the information I have at my disposal to come up with the best answer.
When they exist exclusively within a company, these markets are a way of extracting hidden knowledge from the work force: if a floor salesman learns that a new TV model will be a dud, with a predictions market he can profit from that knowledge, and perhaps the chief executive can learn that as well.
Artikli peamine rõhk ei ole aga ennustusturgudel vaid hoopis Google’i ennustusturgude uurimusel, mis jälgis muuhulgas ka informatsiooni liikumist ettevõttes. Nimelt uuriti ka seda, mis on ühist sarnaseid tehinguid teinud inimeste puhul:
According to the report, “Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence From Google,� (PDF) which was presented Friday at the American Economic Association meeting in New Orleans, the strongest correlation in betting was found among people who sat very close to one another, trumping even friendship or other close social ties.
This is tangible evidence, the authors argue, that information is shared most easily and effectively among office neighbors, even at an Internet company where instant messaging and e-mail are generally preferred to face-to-face discussion.
It is an argument, the authors say, for giving greater importance to “microgeography,� or how people interact in the workplace. The finding that information moved fastest among people who were the closest together is also an endorsement of the company’s “third rule for managing knowledge workers: Pack Them In,� the authors say.
“Peoples’ primary job isn’t to trade these commodities,� Mr. Zitzewitz said, putting the role of prediction markets into perspective, even at Google. “What we are picking up is communication on ‘low priority topics.’ But that’s how creative ideas come about.�
Vaatamata blogidele, wikidele, sotsiaalsetele võrgustikele ja MSN’idele liigub info ikkagi kõige paremini füüsiliselt lähedal asuvate inimeste vahel, kes lihtsalt tavalise vestluse käigus vahetavad informatsiooni, mis võib anda olulise tõuke loovusele.
Kodukontorist võib ju töötada ja kasutada kolleegide suhtlemiseks MSN’i või tavalist maili, kuid mis sellega kaduma läheb?
Igal juhul tasub vähegi loomingulisema kollektiiviga ettevõtetel selle uurimuse tulemustega arvestada, sest koondumine teiste sarnaste ettevõtete juurde võib viia uute ja huvitavate lahendusteni ning vähegi ambitsioonikamad ettevõtted peaksid sellega arvestama ka asukoha valikul.
